It is only days from the election. According to a recent Gallup presidential poll of registered voters, Senator Barack Obama has an 8-point lead over Senator John McCain. (51% to 43% w/3% margin of error) Some would say that Obama is home free. He has led by as many as 11 points over the past few weeks.

However, folks who follow these things closely, although the polls suggest Obama will win, still are not too quick to hand it over to Obama. How much ground can McCain realistically make up over the next 3 days. If McCain goes into Election Day trailing by 5 – 6, points he is in good shape according to some experts. They and McCain’s team are factoring in “The Bradley Effect”. 

What is “The Bradley Effect”?

“The Bradley Effect”, less commonly called “The Wilder Effect”, is an explanation for differences between voter opinion polls and election results when a white candidate runs against a non-white candidate. 

It is named for Former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley. Bradley, who ran for Governor of California in 1982, lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Ironically, Bradley was ahead in some voter polls by as much as 11 points. He even led in exit polls. Therefore, on election night everything pointed in Bradley’s favor. However, at the end of the day he actually lost.

What happened? It’s Simple. Many white voters lied. They said they would vote for a Black candidate, but in the end, could not overcome their own racial biases. According to experts the Bradley effect can account for as much as a 6% difference in actual results versus what people told pollsters they would do. 

Does this mean that Obama should be worried? I guess it depends on whether enough white Americans have overcome their own racial biases. Some say they have. Some say they have not. The question is, "have enough Whites conquered their racial monsters in key battleground state like Ohio, Michigan and Virginia"? I guess we will see on election night.

Critics of the so-called “Bradley Effect”, suggest it existed in the 1980s and 1990s. Since then evidence suggest it no longer exist. Now critics consider it an outdated fear of racism on the part of non-white candidates.

Assuming the Bradley effect really is a thing of the past, Senator Obama is in an excellent position. Assuming it is still in effect I do not think Obama will be affected by it anyway.

Six other Blacks who have run for president before Barack Obama. All brought their own flavor to the scene, but none could overcome the force of “The Bradley effect”. They never really got their campaigns off the ground.

Obama on the other hand has gracefully cleared this hurdle. Whether you believe in the “Bradley Effect” or not you can only conclude one of two things. Either white America has grown enough in its racial tolerance that it can identify with a Black candidate or they do not see Obama as Black.

I would argue that it is the latter of the two. Barack Obama has done a better job than previous Black candidates at neutralizing his race. Whether that is good or bad is open for debate?

Obama’s bi-racial background goes a long way towards supporting his race neutrality. His Kenyan roots lend very little to tie him to a traditional Black American background as many do not mentally link Africans to African Americans.

If there is any truth to this analysis, then the “Bradley effect” will not affect Obama’s bid for the presidency. Assuming it exists, the Bradley affect will only harm minority candidates that have strong ties to their racial group. Senator Obama does not innately have this tie and hence can turn on/off his blackness when deemed appropriate.

Obama is the antidote for the “Bradley effect” that has plagued many Black candidates of the past. If the candidate can build into his/her campaign a form of political albinism and convince enough progressive whites that he/she is sincere then Black politicians have found the recipe for climbing the political ladder.

It will be interesting to see how much influence, if any, the Bradley effect will have on this election and how much the Obama effect will mitigate it.

In the meantime, I will be happy when a candidate is truly measured, positively or negatively, by the content of his competence and his character not the color of his skin.

Just my 20 cents!